Bayesian Interpretation of After-life

I have been working on this problem for quite some time with students and colleagues. This is the first in a series that I will be presenting for discussion and critique. Simply put Bayes’ theorem (alternatively Bayes’ law or Bayes’ rule) describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. The first model that I propose applies Bayes in the estimation of death-related outcomes as random events (an agnostic premise). Prior assumptions for this model are as follows:

  1. After-life is a dichotomous event. One has equal probability of experiencing an after-life;
  2. States of being are polychotomous categorical events. Experiencing or not experiencing an after-life have equal probability of a positive, negative, or neutral disposition;

The model is as follows:

Application of Bayes in Estimation of Post Death States


n=n event;

A=After-life event;



Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: